Arab revolution? Tunisia's Ben Ali's departure for the run - The Rise of the Tunisian population against the regime of the dictator who fled last Friday Zinedine Ben Ali has surprised the world public and impressed the people in the Arab neighborhood. For the first time, the castle of an Arab country have their despots without external interference and without anti-Islamism is a freedom behind it paves the way, literally sent packing.
But the biggest challenge is now before the first: Tunisia can manage to create from the vacuum a freer and more open system? It is still unclear what role will the military, which opposition forces gain influence and as the backing from the ousted President Ben Ali are involved. Also in the authoritarian neighborhood where the people can look with admiration at what the Tunisians succeeded, many have an interest in seeing the Tunisian experiment fail. The European Union and particularly France have in dealing with Tunisia and in their reaction to the events of recent weeks not covered itself with glory. Only the U.S. has zurückgehalten wise and Germany, whose modest encouragement to the renaissance of democracy in Tunisia and carried out with great attention has been consider writing may, in addressing the challenges ahead play an important balancing role.
An Arabian revolution? Tunisia's call for freedom
Ironically, Tunisia has shown it all: the call for freedom in the Arab world is not the result of Western subversion tactics, not a cover under which pave the way for Islamist theocracy. It is the expression of people who are tired of the daily humiliations, Einschüchterungen and the disregard for their Menschenwürde that come with life in any dictatorship. As the first in the Arab world, the Tunisian population has driven her tormentors from the country. Slowly it dawns
people that they are breaking new ground, have made history. And that the heaviest piece of the path before them now is: from nothing to create a dictatorship in the decades to become anemic society, a new country that allows its residents in a life and was in more freedom. It deals he has the Tunisian people and the entire region, that may succeed in this next step and not give them the next yoke is already übergeworfen.
It will take a while before the chaos that this unexpected and until a week ago, largely unnoticed insurgency will follow trends for the further development identified.
Tunisia after the revolution: The Emergence of new constraints or step to freedom?
This concerns first the situation in Tunisia itself, where previously not even in sight, who can ensure in the immediate aftermath minimum order. The military plays a key play in the enforcement of the curfew and in the assessment of the remains of the security apparatus of former President Ben Ali. The soldiers are working closely together with the Bürgerwehren that of the Plunderers threatened neighborhoods protections. Rachid military chief Ammar has refused early, to shoot at demonstrators, whether from calculus or humanity remains to be seen. It is clear that the military, in politics of Tunisia - has won so far did not play a dominant role, prestige and influence - in contrast to neighboring countries.
The formation of a government of national unity seems a logical step to restore political act. But it is questionable how representative these in the present circumstances. Both the Unity Party of former RCD-President Ben Ali and the "recorder opposition" will you have to include in some form, when the foundations for a democratic transition are to be created. The same is true for the most part in the underground and exiled opposition. Similarly, the orientation of free and fair elections in Tunisia will be a tremendous challenge. The constitutionally prescribed period of 60 days for the execution of legislative elections seems not even sufficient to ensure the logistics. Let alone, it can diffuse Bürgerbewegung time to structure and organize themselves in political groupings.
The question of the role of Islamists is crucial. Not so much because they made nowhere to be Machtübernahme stride, because Darfur they are - like all the opposition forces - far too weak. Rather, because the West continues to fear them spellbound staring at a white wall. Hopefully not as long until the dictators in the region always cherished bogey actually comes out. Religious parties will endeavor in Tunisia for political influence. Nowhere in the Arab world, they probably have less public than in the enlightened Support from a large and well-educated middle class dominated Tunisia.
Regional impact: admiration and fear of the street Despot
also are unclear, the regional impact on the Maghreb and the Middle East as a whole, where the castle of Algeria, Libya and Morocco and consider writing look out with some admiration for what was previously the Tunisians. The same applies in reverse for the authorities there. Many of the problems that triggered the revolt in Tunisia, are found throughout the region. Nevertheless, countries differ in terms of its history and its political system is not negligible. Many of these authoritarian regimes have a strong interest, fail to see the Tunisian experiment. How Libyan leader Gaddafi will behave, the every right to fear the worst seems? Already there are reports about infiltration Libyan militia over the open border. What do the Saudis, who have invested in Tunisia considerable amounts of money? Certainly it has offered the dictator who fled a reason for asylum.
The Mediterranean policy of the European Union: a shambles
Also on the other side of the Mediterranean are vestiges of the consequences. The Mediterranean policy of the European Union is a shambles: the pampered despot with whom you just sat at the negotiating table to get over the granting of privileged "advanced status" to negotiate in association with the EU, meanwhile, by his own people chased from the country. This supported the primacy of the stability and the interests of individual member countries for policy of pandering all failed magnificently visible. The question is therefore what role the EU is now exposed in this way can play in Tunisia to assist in a better future.
Just as the chased Ben Ali has recognized the former colonial power France, which plays in the Maghreb region still plays a key, the signs of time as the close friend Ben Ali ousted late. Only four days before the flight of the dictator offers Foreign Minister Alliot-Marie in the regime of the French National Assembly to send special forces to control the uprisings. Also be kept the Tunisians in a long memory.
Kluge Zurückhaltung: At last, a success for American foreign policy in the region?
is above all the United States over the course of the developments so far zurückgehalten wise. Secretary Clinton has but a few were set important accents. Fruh it has highlighted the right of Tunisians, located above their own political Guided visits. Consider writing, she has not settled on a position. U.S. President Barak Obama now praises the courage of the Tunisians. If the Mediterranean country on the right track, this is also a long-awaited success for American foreign policy be in the region.
Germany as a mediator
The attitude of the Federal Republic of prosecution in Tunisia and the region very closely. Especially because Germany is not in this situation where visibility is one of the various storage is allocated. The modest encouragement for democratic awakening has met with residents in Tunisia to listen. to use this trust to help which the Tunisian burgers at the achievement of greater freedom, the challenge in the coming weeks and months will be. In the light of courage and moral courage, which have shown the people in the last few weeks that seem predictable sleepless nights than the lowest price.
Published on Monday 17 January 2011 by Alexander Knippert in foreign and security policy
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